Israeli anti-Hezbollah axis with Riyadh will weaken

Significance

He exhorted Riyadh to take the “golden opportunity” of a strategic alliance with Washington to confront Iranian extremism, and threatened to attack the advanced missile factories he said Iran was building for Shia movement Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah had already spiked in Lebanon because of the political crisis following the November 4 resignation of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, widely seen as part of a regional proxy confrontation between Riyadh and Tehran.

Impacts

• Support for the Saudi position in Lebanon will not spur Israel to military action on Riyadh's behalf.
• Nasrallah could make some compromises, including partial pullback from Syria, to keep Hariri in office.
• Israeli forces in the Golan Heights will step up military preparedness for possible provocations from Syria.
• A rise in tensions on the Gaza border could lead to Israeli attacks on leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Damascus.