China-Pakistan corridor security risks will increase

Subject

Threats to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Significance

China on December 8 warned its nationals in Pakistan that “terrorist attacks” targeting them are imminent. Acts of political violence around the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) -- a key component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative -- are exacerbating concerns about the safety of investments and personnel. Beijing will expect Islamabad to meet the security challenge.

Impacts

• The CPEC’s Joint Coordination Committee should resolve most disputes between Beijing and Islamabad over project plans.
• Political opposition to the CPEC may grow if Chinese investments are perceived to be trapping Pakistan in debt.
• Pakistan’s current account deficit is likely to widen, with the rise in the country's imports strongly linked to the CPEC.