Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2018

Subject

Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2018.

Significance

Questions of democratic legitimacy and transition will dominate the outlook for East Africa and the Great Lakes over the coming year, in the context of election controversies (Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya), constitutional term-limit issues (Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Uganda) and deepening political conflicts (Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan). Receding economic headwinds will support a moderate growth recovery for several states (Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda), but political risk will weigh on the outlook for others (Burundi, DRC, Kenya, South Sudan).