US-Russian arms treaty is at risk but not dead

Subject

Uncertainty around the future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty.

Significance

The future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty is in doubt as the US Congress considers plans to produce a new ground-launched intermediate-range missile in response to evidence of Russian violations. Active verification has lapsed, and the weapons covered by the treaty are in practice the hardest to distinguish from conventionally armed equivalents. A US congressional initiative to plan for an intermediate-range missile is meant to ensure Russian treaty compliance but Moscow's response is defiant.

Impacts

• Moscow and Washington are focused on other foreign policy issues that may push the INF treaty to the back burner.
• The multiplication of missile variants makes it harder to tell whether a particular model breaches the INF treaty.
• Russia's military campaign in Syria has allowed it to test, under live conditions, missiles that could be adapted for ground launch.