Future of Ecuador’s ruling party hangs in the balance

Significance

After a decade of political dominance, the ruling Alianza Pais (AP) is plagued with infighting, divided loyalties and corruption scandals, and faces rupture. President Lenin Moreno retains broad support in the party, but a substantial faction has declared loyalty to Correa so that an intra-party schism along Moreno-Correa lines is looking more likely.

Impacts

• Parties to the right of AP would gain most if the party split; left-wing opposition will remain marginalised.
• Opposition leaders from the left and right will intensify efforts to open corruption investigations into Correa.
• Correa’s return to Ecuador would leave him vulnerable to charges of corruption.