Macedonian premier may not control fractious coalition

Subject

The former ruling party’s defeat in local elections.

Significance

Macedonia’s ruling Social Democrats (SDSM) inflicted a crushing defeat on their erstwhile rival, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), in last month’s local elections. Both parties in effect exchanged positions, the SDSM winning 57 municipalities and VMRO five, compared with four and 56 respectively in the previous election in 2013. VMRO suffered its greatest electoral defeat since its creation in 1990.

Impacts

• Gruevski’s conclusive demise makes Macedonia unambiguously pro-Western and changes the geopolitics of the region.
• Zaev’s rows with Serbia, which briefly closed its embassy in Skopje in August 2017, probably will not have long-term significance.
• With the end of two years of political instability, Macedonia would become more attractive to foreign investment, especially Chinese.