Riyadh’s radical power centralisation risks a backlash

Significance

This follows the detentions on November 4 of multiple important royal family members, ministers and former ministers, most notably the powerful head of the National Guard.

Impacts

• Investors and local businesses will respond with caution to the unexpected move, heralding a new period of economic uncertainty.
• Riyadh is likely to spearhead a more open regional confrontation with Tehran: Yemen and Lebanon will be key battlegrounds.
• Mohammed bin Salman will increasingly rely on populist appeal to youth to cement control, as old patronage networks atrophy.