US 2018 midterms are likely to weaken Democrats' clout

Significance

The Democrats are seeking to revive their party’s fortunes in legislative and electoral battles from the nadir following the political upsets of 2016. As the party seeks to orientate itself towards the administration of President Donald Trump at the federal level, its congressional leaders must balance the centrist considerations of legislative strategy under Republican rule with the expectations of frustrated progressive voters and activists in the party base. The Democrats also face electoral tests in the 2018 midterms and -- more importantly -- when Trump seeks re-election in 2020.

Impacts

• House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is likely to face a post-midterms leadership challenge.
• More extreme Republican primary challengers backed by Steve Bannon could cost the Republicans otherwise winnable Senate seats.
• A sizeable contingent of Democratic senators are likely to vote with the 2020 presidential primaries in mind.
• A conservative Supreme Court ruling allowing partisan gerrymandering in key states will hinder Democratic House gains.
• Democratic weakness at the state level will have negative electoral and policymaking consequences at federal level.