Xi's legacy hinges on leadership reshuffle

Subject

The upcoming Chinese Communist Party Congress.

Significance

President Xi Jinping may be about to upend China’s post-Mao succession arrangements at the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, scheduled to open on October 18. Xi has engineered a 'quiet revolution' that has introduced new risks into China's domestic and foreign policies. To continue his unfinished revolution and safeguard its legacy, Xi has the incentive and the political momentum to seek a third term as the head of the Party.

Impacts

• Most of Xi's ambitious projects are works in progress, and success is far from certain.
• Xi’s leadership could be called into question should the economy run into serious problems, related to corporate debt, for instance.
• Failure of One Belt One Road or a serious breakdown in relations with Washington could cause problems for Xi domestically.