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US influence in South-east Asia is likely to wane

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Significance

Trump had said his attendance was certain, but now he appears less sure. This is raising fresh questions about his administration’s policy towards South-east Asia, a region which received more attention under his predecessor, Barack Obama.

Impacts

  • Less US influence in ASEAN could benefit China, though ASEAN states will still seek US involvement to hedge against Beijing.
  • US policy towards South-east Asia will be driven more by Congress than the White House.
  • The White House is unlikely to prioritise good governance or human rights over trade initiatives.

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