Canada’s Conservatives will struggle to oust Trudeau

Significance

NAFTA renegotiation is one of the main issues Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and his newly appointed shadow cabinet will tackle as the Official Opposition since his election as party leader in late May. Scheer has given early indications of the kind of opposition the Conservatives intend to offer to the governing Liberals, and what kind of government they may eventually form if they take back power in the 2019 elections.

Impacts

• The Conservatives may benefit from NDP divisions in Quebec over the province’s bill banning the niqab for public service recipients.
• A Progressive Conservative victory against unpopular Ontario Liberals in 2018 could bring federal dividends for Scheer.
• An economic downturn or housing crunch could dislodge the Liberals’ prime position ahead of the 2019 polls.