Iraqi factions will seek territorial gains

Significance

With IS in retreat, many Iraqis fear conflict, as controversial questions about territory and administration rise up the agenda. These disputes are more complex than the prevalent images of Iraq as divided between Kurds, Shia and Sunnis imply. Many disagreements are decades-old, exacerbated by rapid changes after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and the IS takeover in 2014.

Impacts

• Provincial elections due in September may be delayed until 2018, and could suffer from boycotts and low turnout in former IS areas.
• IS remnants will carry out bombings and suicide attacks across the country, fuelling tensions.
• Turkey and Iran could try to use economic and trade interests to pressure the KRI to restrain its ambitions.