CAR border areas will face growing insecurity

Significance

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that the security situation could deteriorate further if the parties do not de-escalate. The latest wave of violence is being drawn steadily south-eastwards, as armed activity expands into an area vacated in May by the Ugandan People’s Defence Force (UPDF), which had been in CAR since 2011 as part of the African Union Regional Taskforce against the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA).

Impacts

• US policymakers’ focus on the threats posed by salafi-jihadist groups will overshadow support for regional peacekeeping.
• Uganda will limit its international military engagements as the UPDF becomes more active in domestic politics.
• Insecurity in neighbouring South Sudan and Congo may further complicate regional security.