Austria’s growing economy may not allay voters’ fears

Subject

Austria's economic outlook.

Significance

Austria, along with most of the euro-area, is enjoying a wave of upgrades in economic forecasts. Favourable GDP, employment and trade data suggests that the country’s recovery has accelerated in early 2017, probably putting GDP growth over the first half at about 2%.

Impacts

• Economic aspects are likely to dominate election campaigns as fears about the 2015-16 surge in immigration seem to be receding.
• Public dissatisfaction with high unemployment and slow reform progress could benefit the populist far-right Freedom Party.
• The October election is likely to be a personalised competition between Chancellor Christian Kern and Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz.