Ban could help Indonesia’s Widodo, but trigger protest

Significance

President Joko Widodo’s administration and its political allies have intensified their defence of Indonesia’s state ideology, Pancasila, which outlines the fundamentals of the country’s democracy including the unitary nature of the republic. This has resulted in a nationalist turn that could threaten Widodo’s reforming image.

Impacts

• Some HTI members could become radicalised if the ban is thoroughly implemented.
• Using presidential regulations allows Widodo to consolidate power before the 2019 general election.
• Widodo’s use of executive powers will likely not draw international scrutiny.
• Fully disbanding HTI will require public arrests of its leadership, possibly causing violent protests.
• Rising nationalism could see strengthened Islamist nationalist groups, such as the Islamic Defenders Front.