The attacks came shortly after President Alassane Ouattara reshuffled his cabinet and overshadowed Ivory Coast's hosting of the 8th francophone games in Abidjan (July 21-30). The latest disturbances by former rebel soldiers follow several other attacks on military installations in both Abidjan and Korhogo in the north. This is despite a May pay agreement that officially ended outstanding grievances.
- Persistent military disturbances could prompt a violent political transition in 2020.
- Political figures looking to succeed Ouattara will use security service networks to undermine their rivals.
- Media freedom could be curtailed following the introduction of a new press bill.
- Cooperation between Ghana and Ivory Coast on cocoa exporting policy could protect against future market shocks and global price slumps.
- The current unrest is unlikely to be a harbinger of a return to widespread civil conflict.