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Another Israeli-Palestinian Gaza war could break Hamas

Monday, June 19, 2017

Significance

Since Israel evacuated Gaza in 2005 and Hamas took control after winning the 2006 elections, there have been three conflicts, most recently in July 2014. The standard pattern is a rise in rocket and other attacks against Israel from Gaza, followed by an Israeli military incursion to destroy that capability.

Impacts

  • Israel’s work on the new barrier will present a media challenge to Hamas's Gaza chief, Yehia Sinwar.
  • A rising humanitarian crisis could force Hamas to make concessions to Egypt in order to secure power and other supplies.
  • Iran may boost assistance to Hamas’s military wing, linked with Sinwar, to expand its leverage against Israel.
  • Any military escalation in Gaza could distract attention from corruption investigations into Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
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