United Arab Emirates military will use proxy warfare

Significance

The UAE military is deeply concerned about both direct and indirect threats from Iran and from Sunni political Islam. It has therefore focused on building alliances with global and regional partner militaries, seen as more useful than developing unilateral capabilities.

Impacts

• The UAE military will not engage in the current Qatar crisis which is political and economic.
• Abu Dhabi will prioritise alliances with the United States, Europe and Israel to deter Iran.
• Lobbying for the transfer of the US airbase from Qatar to the UAE is unlikely to succeed.
• The UAE will build its defence industry to function as an arsenal for regional allies.