A recent spate of al-Shabaab attacks on security forces in Kenya and the assassination of several senior Somali security personnel have raised fears of a potential resurgence of the militant group. Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the London conference on Somalia on May 11, a Joint Review of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), conducted by the Federal Government of Somalia, the African Union, the UN and other key international partners, is underway.
- An end to an arms embargo could bolster domestic capacity, but UN Security Council requirements are unlikely to be met in the short term.
- Looser US military rules of engagement could result in mounting civilian deaths and potential international law violations.
- The ongoing Gulf crisis could threaten to undermine the London conference consensus among international partners.