Guinea-Bissau deadlock will threaten fragile growth

Significance

A month previously, the ECOWAS had reiterated its displeasure over the lack of progress in resolving the ongoing political impasse and issued an ultimatum to political actors to implement the 2016 Conakry Agreement or face sanctions. The UN has also threatened to initiate punitive measures if the political situation deteriorates further between President Jose Mario Vaz and his ruling party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC).

Impacts

• Given the risk of a military coup, ECOWAS is likely to retain some of its troops until after the 2018 legislative election.
• A court action by two banks against the government could endanger IMF loans and donors' budgetary support.
• Ongoing political instability could lead to increased activities by organised criminal and terrorist networks.