Ukraine's leadership will survive opposition attacks

Significance

Three years into Petro Poroshenko's presidency, his administration is unpopular but still has the parliamentary support to preclude the early elections that Tymoshenko and others are calling for. His ruling coalition is appeasing nationalist sentiment and fending off pro-Moscow opposition forces through tough talk and some action against Russia.

Impacts

• Relative political stability will have a calming effect on the economy, provided there is no major escalation of military conflict.
• If Kyiv introduces visas for Russians, this will provoke reciprocal measures that will hurt Ukrainians working in Russia.
• Failure to adopt pension reforms could result in the cabinet's dismissal but not early elections.