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Perceived threat will shape Balkan NATO defence spend

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Significance

Montenegro’s accession is a symbolic coup for NATO, overcoming sustained opposition from Russia. However, its resources are small, rekindling the debate about what new members contribute to the pact.

Impacts

  • Defence spending is likely to rise but few states apart from Romania will reach NATO’s target of 2% of GDP.
  • The mini-arms race between Croatia and Serbia will be limited in scope.
  • Russia’s share in Balkan defence markets will shrink slowly.
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