Afghan president's coalition plan carries high risks

Subject

Evolving Afghan alliances.

Significance

Manoeuvring for parliamentary elections expected in 2018 and a presidential ballot the following year is already under way. President Ashraf Ghani is courting powerful northern regional governor Atta Mohammed Noor and veteran insurgent leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar to form a coalition, while his disgruntled former allies are in discussions about uniting against him.

Impacts

• The return of Hekmatyar will give Pakistan direct leverage in Kabul.
• The United States may welcome a reduction in Iranian and Russian influence.
• Hekmatyar has few combatants left to bring over to the government side.