Martial law call could threaten Philippines’ Duterte

Significance

He has now introduced martial law to Mindanao and confirmed yesterday that habeas corpus had also been suspended on the island.

Impacts

• Internal security risks will likely delay or halt Mindanao investment pledges.
• This could hit Duterte’s development aims and dent his support in his Mindanao political heartland.
• The Philippines will seek Russian investment especially in tourism, energy, infrastructure and transport.
• Philippines-Russia trade will likely expand but this will be a long-term process, as will trade diversification.
• Retaliating against martial law, the New People's Army will conduct more attacks, underming the government-communist peace process.