Thai security outlook varies regionally

Significance

The attack occurred on the third anniversary of the 2014 military coup. Both the hospital bombing and a spike in violence in the southern insurgency point to a deterioration in national security.

Impacts

• The junta will use the recent violence to step up its crackdown on dissidents.
• The new Computer Crime Act that comes into effect this week could be used in a new purge of online dissidents.
• Recent export growth will provide an economic boost over the next six months, easing some political pressure on the junta.
• However, further attacks on the capital could prevent a rebound in private investment, which has been weakening since the start of 2016.