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Kenya's primaries may not portend a violent election

Thursday, May 18, 2017


After the chaotic and competitive party primaries prior to the August 8 general election, many disappointed contestants are seeking to run as independents across all six positions: president, parliamentarian, governor, senator, county assembly member and women's representative (who sits in the national parliament). This will further fragment the political scene, making the campaign for presidential votes less certain in party strongholds.


  • Jubilee could benefit from two pre-election economic milestones: the completion of the new railway and the first trucked oil exports.
  • However, key swing votes from the urban poor in Nairobi may be lost due to rising inflation.
  • The combination of drought and pre-election investor hesitancy makes the World Bank's downward growth revision to 5.5% credible.

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