Kenya's primaries may not portend a violent election

Significance

After the chaotic and competitive party primaries prior to the August 8 general election, many disappointed contestants are seeking to run as independents across all six positions: president, parliamentarian, governor, senator, county assembly member and women's representative (who sits in the national parliament). This will further fragment the political scene, making the campaign for presidential votes less certain in party strongholds.

Impacts

• Jubilee could benefit from two pre-election economic milestones: the completion of the new railway and the first trucked oil exports.
• However, key swing votes from the urban poor in Nairobi may be lost due to rising inflation.
• The combination of drought and pre-election investor hesitancy makes the World Bank's downward growth revision to 5.5% credible.