Regional risk will force Jordan to step up security

Significance

Jordan is surrounded by conflict and struggling to accommodate over a million Syrian refugees. The economy is faltering and the country’s security services are fully occupied with potential salafi-jihadist threats from without and within. Regional crises in Syria and Israel-Palestine exacerbate rising domestic discontent.

Impacts

• Domestic security measures, including surveillance of online activism and curbs on the media, will be ramped up.
• Tourism is unlikely to recover in the short term.
• Efforts will intensify to secure international financial aid, already at record levels.
• Lack of progress on Israeli-Palestinian peace could alienate Jordan's majority-Palestinian population.