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Afghan security is likely to deteriorate in 2017

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Subject

Outlook for Afghanistan's security in 2017.

Significance

The Taliban attacked a major Afghan army base on April 21 near Mazar-e-Sharif in the northern Balkh province, killing over 140 government soldiers. The attack underlined the strength of the Taliban insurgency and the vulnerability of ostensibly secure, high-profile targets.

Impacts

  • The narcotics trade is likely to rise in southern provinces, fuelling the trafficking problem for Afghanistan’s neighbours.
  • Development workers and NGOs will face security threats from both the Taliban and IS combatants.
  • Russian and Iranian outreach to the Taliban will continue, with little positive impact on Afghan security.

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