Rift with EU looks likely after Turkish referendum

Significance

Its fairness has been challenged by the opposition and international observers. Erdogan is nevertheless pressing ahead with consolidating his authority; in the coming months he will shake up Turkey's administrative system.

Impacts

• Erdogan will remain firmly in control inside Turkey and the opposition will be further marginalised.
• Business confidence in Istanbul will remain low.
• The government will seek foreign investors in such sectors as mining to help ease balance of payments difficulties.