Intra-communal divisions will plague post-IS Iraq

Significance

However, the successful fight against IS has not forged a new sense of unity among Iraq’s communities; instead, it has solidified some divides and created conditions for future conflict.

Impacts

• Low-level conflict and instability will persist after IS, undermining the business environment.
• If no political consensus can be reached after the upcoming polls, Iraq's long-term future as a unified country becomes more problematic.
• Outside Kurdish-controlled areas, the bulk of oil production is in the south; the main risk to output is therefore intra-Shia conflict.
• A possible Kurdish bid for independence could destabilise Iraq as a whole.