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Intra-communal divisions will plague post-IS Iraq

Wednesday, April 12, 2017


However, the successful fight against IS has not forged a new sense of unity among Iraq’s communities; instead, it has solidified some divides and created conditions for future conflict.


  • Low-level conflict and instability will persist after IS, undermining the business environment.
  • If no political consensus can be reached after the upcoming polls, Iraq's long-term future as a unified country becomes more problematic.
  • Outside Kurdish-controlled areas, the bulk of oil production is in the south; the main risk to output is therefore intra-Shia conflict.
  • A possible Kurdish bid for independence could destabilise Iraq as a whole.

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