Burundian constitutional change will prove tumultuous
Significance
In late March, Evariste Ndayishimiye, the secretary-general of the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) party, further indicated that this commission would not only review extending the term limit but also possibly abolishing it. Such an amendment would allow Nkuruniza to run again in 2020 but would put the Burundian leader on a collision course with the international community. In late February, the UN Security Council (UNSC) indicated that any constitutional change would violate the Arusha Accords of 2000 -- the political framework that eventually brought Burundi out of its civil war.
Impacts
- Calls for additional sanctions could find resonance if the security and political situation deteriorates.
- Previous economic gains, following extensive investment in the agricultural sector, may reverse.
- The political impasse is now set against the background of a major public health emergency: Burundi is in the grip of a malaria epidemic.