State of emergency will benefit Ethiopian military

Significance

In the wake of demonstrations that peaked in September and October last year, tens of thousands of protesters and suspects were arrested, often undergoing a ‘re-education’ programme while in detention.

Impacts

• Economic disruptions and drought will hinder Ethiopia’s predictions for export-led growth.
• The risk of protests with the intensity of those in 2016 has diminished; smaller, sporadic episodes are possible.
• Despite the protests, investment in Ethiopia will remain attractive, especially for investors with greater appetite for risk.
• The government will prioritise more technocratic performance solutions over political concessions to protests.