Russia will expand Middle East security and trade role

Significance

The previous day, the Pentagon said that Moscow was trying to influence events in Libya. Since intervening in Syria in September 2015, President Vladimir Putin has established Russia as one of the dominant external powers in the Middle East.

Impacts

• The new US administration is likely to seek ways of working with Russia in the Middle East, rather than challenging it.
• Russia’s influence will be constrained by a lack of financial muscle, and by the limited slate of products and services that it can sell.
• Moscow will face problems with regional allies or clients that refuse to bend to its will, become a financial drain or try to manipulate it.