Erdogan may get little on Syria from Moscow trip

Significance

The atmosphere is certain to be tense. With the Turkish army unable to enter Manbij, the two sides will find it difficult to reach agreement. Yet unless they do so, Turkish backing for the Astana ceasefire agreement could be in jeopardy, something Russia is unlikely to welcome. Nonetheless, Moscow has clearly indicated that it is not considering giving Turkey the green light to crush Kurdish enclaves in Syria.

Impacts

• Barring an unexpected military reverse, the Syrian civil war is entering its final stage.
• Western governments are likely to acquiesce eventually in a settlement that largely reinstates Assad in a Russian protectorate.
• With many refugees unable to return, internal pressures on Turkey to allow some of them to travel elsewhere will grow.