Election will reveal China's position on Hong Kong

Subject

The outlook for Hong Kong's chief executive election.

Significance

On March 26, Hong Kong will elect a new chief executive to head the city's government for the next five years. He or she will be elected not by universal suffrage but by a 1,194-member Election Committee. This year's election is the first since the 1997 handover of Hong Kong to China where the outcome is uncertain: the incumbent, Leung Chun-ying, has decided not to run for a second term, and there are two potential successors acceptable to Beijing.

Impacts

• Leung is so unpopular that the winner will have greater ability to manoeuvre simply by virtue of not being him.
• At very least, the winner will consolidate support among the establishment; however, the honeymoon will be short.
• The election will shed light on Beijing's influence and intentions in the city.