China-Vietnam cooperation hinges on Chinese caution

Subject

The outlook for China-Vietnam relations.

Significance

Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong’s visit to Beijing last month was a sign of significant, ongoing improvement in the contentious bilateral relationship over the past year. China and Vietnam are the two most likely belligerents in the South China Sea, having fought naval skirmishes in 1974 and 1988, so their relationship is vital to regional stability. However, unlike the Philippines’ abrupt tilt towards China under President Rodrigo Duterte, ties between Beijing and Hanoi have warmed gradually.

Impacts

• Crisis management and confidence-building measures will advance as long as ties remain cordial, reducing the risk of future instability.
• Suppression of nationalist activism, particularly in Vietnam, will reduce the incentives for leaders to escalate or initiate crises.
• Vietnam will pursue substantive cooperation with China’s security rivals, notably India, Japan and the United States.
• Chinese South China Sea policy will be the most important factor affecting China-Vietnam ties.