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Trump will undercut the US national security apparatus

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Significance

Former national security officials and Trump-sceptical Republican lawmakers praised McMaster's appointment as a much-needed stabilising influence on the National Security Council (NSC). Given Trump's lack of government experience, the NSC would be the prime vehicle for shepherding presidential orders through the levels of government, quashing bureaucratic battles between agencies, and helping Trump process and respond to national security crises.

Impacts

  • Trump favouring political supporters in policy matters is likely to lead to experienced officials resigning.
  • The president may threaten a reorganisation of the intelligence community to reduce internal dissent.
  • Taiwan, Iran, Russia, Iraq/Syria, and Israel-Palestinians policy seem likely areas of discord within Trump's governing team.
  • The absence of trusted voices advocating restraint may lead the White House to overuse militarised responses to incidents overseas.
  • White House efforts to quash bureaucratic leaks are likely to weaken the interagency process.

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