Brexit will bring instability to Northern Ireland

Significance

The collapse of Northern Ireland's power-sharing executive on January 16, coupled with the prospect of a policed border after Brexit (for the first time since 2005), removes two highly visible accomplishments of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and in turn helps opponents of the peace process.

Impacts

• Northern Irish financial services providing 'nearshore' support for London will be hit by banks moving head office functions elsewhere.
• Northern Ireland will suffer economically from Brexit more than other regions owing to reliance on agricultural exports to the EU.
• An extended period of direct rule would break habits of cooperation, complicating the return to devolved self-government.