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Frictions with Moscow underline Belarusian dependence

Friday, January 6, 2017

Significance

Disputes about fuel prices, as well as Belarusian concerns about Moscow's treatment of Ukraine, have marred the long-term Belarusian-Russian alignment. As head of the weaker state, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka has limited room for manoeuvre but has complained about Russia's behaviour and reversed his previous anti-Western stance, offering engagement and investment opportunities to EU states.

Impacts

  • Greater US and European willingness to engage with Moscow may undermine Belarusian attempts to emerge as a separate interlocutor.
  • Stable or rising global energy prices will change the calculations in bilateral oil and gas disputes.
  • The Eurasian Economic Union will struggle to develop integration because of suspicions about Moscow's intentions towards fellow members.

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