Cyprus will soon test Greek-Turkish relations

Subject

The potential for crisis in Greek-Turkish relations.

Significance

Following a long period of rapprochement and normalised relations between Greece and Turkey, the two states' relationship is being tested by a deteriorating geopolitical environment and an increasingly restless post-coup Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rhetorical revisionism regarding post-First World War borders is making Greece very uneasy for its Aegean islands.

Impacts

• Bilateral relations will mainly be affected by the wider geopolitical environment and the regional balance of power.
• While Erdogan is intensifying nationalist rhetoric directed at Greece, he must consider other more immediate and dangerous security threats.
• The economic and energy costs of competition in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean could be significant for both countries.