Early signs of change may wither in Uzbekistan

Significance

Mirzioyev has spoken about reforms, but the tightly managed choreography of election is the same as under the late Islam Karimov, who died in September. That does not suggest political reform is in the offing. A pledge to make the Uzbek currency convertible will be a test: Karimov's government was unable to do this in 25 years.

Impacts

• Economic revival through foreign investment will require a much-improved business climate.
• Household incomes will fall as migrant remittances shrink, and the government will prepare to crush any ensuing unrest.
• Cooperation with surrounding states will bring trade, transit fees and reduced border and inter-governmental tensions.