Mosul loss could transform global jihadi terrorism

Significance

Iraqi security forces supported by a US-led coalition launched a long-awaited offensive against IS militants in Mosul in October. The group has suffered a string of losses in the past few months, including the Syrian town of Dabiq, of great symbolic importance to IS as the site of its notional apocalyptic showdown with the West.

Impacts

• IS will capitalise on humanitarian and refugee crises in Iraq and Syria to recruit and rebuild its strength over several years.
• The group may fragment into independent cells that could attempt their own attacks or join the al-Qaida network.
• Returning foreign fighters could pose a significant risk to their home countries, given their combat experience.