Unrest may undermine East Africa's growth potential

Subject

Shifts in African economic growth centres.

Significance

Slowing economic growth has muted the 'Africa rising' paradigm. The combined slowdown in the continent's oil economies, discovery of vast natural resources in eastern Africa, and better integration of East African economies has instead led to talk of 'Africa tilting' or other related metaphors of eastern countries' ascendancy. Like its predecessor, this concept needs to be carefully unpacked.

Impacts

• The youth bulge in sub-Saharan Africa will not guarantee a growth in per capita GDP.
• Political unrest and deepening violence could damage regional prospects.
• Conflicts in the region will continue and could undermine confidence, especially if they develop a more regional character.