Trump is likely to avert collapse, but faces defeat

Significance

Republican officeholders, party officials and donors have called for Trump to drop out of the presidential race in the last few days. Despite struggling in the polls since the first presidential debate of September 26, Trump has indicated that he will not voluntarily end his candidacy.

Impacts

• US policymaking institutions are highly vulnerable to the obstructionist political demands of negative partisanship.
• Republican officeholders treading softly on Trump's candidacy may be worried about conservative charges of enabling a Clinton presidency.
• An unexpected Trump election win via underpolled non-traditional voters would greatly strengthen his hand against the party elite.
• However, voter registration in counties with Trump-leaning demographics does not appear to be outstripping less friendly areas.