Invalid Hungarian referendum will gain Orban little

Subject

The Hungarian government's anti-immigration stance.

Significance

Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government have been campaigning against the wave of migrants seeking refuge in Europe, and the EU's handling of the resulting crisis. The government hoped a referendum on October 2 would reject EU settlement of non-Hungarians in Hungary without parliament's consent. With a turnout of less than 50%, the referendum is null and void. Orban's Fidesz party nevertheless claimed victory, as 98.6% of those who cast a valid vote opposed relocation.

Impacts

• The opposition to Fidesz will be able to frame the referendum as its first victory since 2010 and try to build unity on that basis.
• Fidesz will be unable to extend its popular support on the basis of these results.
• The EU is unlikely to react forcefully to constitutional amendments in Hungary, given Brexit and elections in France and Germany.