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India-Pakistan tensions up regional geopolitical risk

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Subject

Outlook for India-Pakistan ties.

Significance

The cross-border raid conducted on the night of September 28-29 by Indian security forces apparently inside Pakistan-held Kashmir in response to a terrorist attack in Kashmir represents a continuation of a newly assertive neighbourhood security policy by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Pakistan has denied such a strike took place, claiming it was only a case of border firing.

Impacts

  • Another India-Pakistan war (although unlikely) would involve conventional weapons.
  • Delhi's military move will virtually eliminate bilateral commercial and cultural ties.
  • Beijing and Washington's leverage to prevent an escalation in South Asia may prove insufficient.

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