Erdogan may find events in Turkey escaping his control

Subject

Erdogan's vision for Turkey.

Significance

Since the July attempted coup, the government has purged 81,000 real or imagined opponents. Yet it has not been in turmoil, as is frequently claimed, even though President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's refusal to compromise on any front has locked Turkey into simultaneous expensive military conflicts, including participation in the civil war in Syria, just after 3,000 serving officers have been purged and just under 40% of generals and admirals either sacked or arrested.

Impacts

• Erdogan's supremacy faces no foreseeable internal challengers or pressures to make policy changes.
• Turkey's international isolation will worsen, especially the US rift; the EU will keep its soft line while Russia will be friendly.
• The defeat of Islamic State group and recapture of Mosul will exacerbate US-Turkish tensions.
• Reliance on Russian energy imports may grow and new areas of cooperation be announced.
• Turkey's ambitious new health system may be an early economic area to run into financing problems.