Philippines-UK defence and trade ties will grow

Significance

The country's vote to leave the EU has added momentum to a realignment of UK economic and foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific region underway for some years. Parliamentarian Richard Graham, a prime ministerial trade envoy, visited Manila in late August to explore the prospects for closer ties, including a Philippines-UK free trade agreement (FTA).

Impacts

• China will tolerate greater Philippine-UK engagement if London stays out of South China Sea disputes.
• If controversy over Duterte's crime crackdown grows, May might face domestic political pressures to keep Manila at arm's length for now.
• Duterte's abrasive political style may deter fresh investment pledges.
• Closer defence ties with Manila would aid improvements in the United Kingdom's ties with ASEAN and its other members.