Post-Karimov Uzbekistan lacks forces for change

Significance

Karimov's death leaves a void since governance stemmed from him and his ability to coerce and manage Uzbekistan's regional groupings and key political and business players. The National Security Service (SNB), a powerful political force in its own right with connections and placemen throughout government, will play kingmaker.

Impacts

• The other four Central Asian states will watch nervously and hope for less erratic and aggressive Uzbek leadership.
• Severe economic problems will increase pressure for market reforms which Karimov shirked.
• With no political alternatives, violent extremism inspired by Islamic State group remains a stability risk.