Coca divergence will widen across Latin America

Subject

2015 coca trends.

Significance

Recent reports from the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC) point to a significant shift in patterns of coca production in the Andean countries. While acreages are down in Peru and Bolivia, there has been a sudden surge in Colombia, the world's largest producer. This suggests a last-minute attempt by producers to take advantage of peace negotiations which have led to a let-up in eradication.

Impacts

• As production becomes more sophisticated, more cocaine will be produced from less coca.
• Africa will become increasingly important as a transhipment route, especially Nigeria and Cape Verde.
• Asia is emerging as a growing market for cocaine, and will shape future trafficking routes.